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international working group on

MODelling of Economies and Societies in Transition



Zbigniew Nahorski and Jan W. Owsiński

Newelska 6, 01-447 Warszawa, Poland; Facsimile: (48 22) 38 10 105




sent out irregularly, mainly on the basis of what's new

Edited etc. by Jan Owsiński



Issue no. 18, Autumn 2015



1. MODEST 2014 meeting in Warsaw: some remarks
2. Invitation to the next MODEST Workshop
3. EURO 2016 Conference in Poznań
4. Proposals and suggestions


1. MODEST 2014 meeting in Warsaw: some remarks

The last Workshop of the EWG MODEST, as this was already repeated several times, took place on September 24-26 (Wednesday-Friday) 2014 in Warsaw. The (broader) BOS 2014 meeting, with which the MODEST Workshop was affiliated, was, quite traditionally, organised jointly with the Systems Research Institute of the Polish Academy of Sciences. One of the sessions of BOS 2016 was explicitly hosted by MODEST, while some other MODEST-related papers were presented in other sessions of the broader Conference, appropriate mention having been duly made.

The papers that were presented formally in the framework of the MODEST Workshop were authored by scholars from Poland, Sweden, Spain, Algeria, and United Kingdom. Some of you might remember that to our regret, the announced papers by authors coming from Russia and Ukraine could not be presented due to the inability of their authors to join the Workshop. This is, an evidence on how the bad political events influence in a disruptive manner the scientific exchange (even if MODEST Workshop seems to be somewhat of an exception, since Russian and Ukrainian scientists do, in fact, make it now to various international meetings, the fact that this actually happened cannot simply be denied).

By the time of this Newsletter, all of the papers from the Workshop have either been published with selected journals, either Polish or international, or are headed towards publication, meaning that they were finally accepted to appear in the forthcoming issues. The mechanism of publishing the higher quality papers through specialised journals shall be maintained in the future, but for the next workshop a change is envisaged, see further on…

2. Invitation to the next MODEST Workshop

In the previous issue of the Newsletter we announced that the next MODEST Workshop shall not take place Warsaw, like the two recent ones, but, instead, in Poznań, in 2016, affiliated, this time, primarily with the EURO-k Conference, which is scheduled to take place on 3-6 July 2016. It was also expected that the bi-annual BOS Conference of the Polish Operational and Systems Research Society (here: BOS 2016) shall also be associated with the EURO 2016 in Poznań. Yet, it was decided, for several reasons, including the difference in fees, that the two events shall be separated. We return to the announcement of EURO 2016 in the next section of this Newsletter.

Thus, please feel invited to MODEST 2016 Workshop in Warsaw, again, to take place on October 13th-14th, 2016 (Thursday-Friday), in Palais Staszic, a traditional centre of scientific events and institutions, in the very heart of Warsaw. The Initial Registration Form for this meeting is being distributed along with the present Newsletter.

It is planned that the higher quality papers from the Workshop, included in the publishing process of the BOS 2016 Conference, shall be directed to selected journals, like this was done for the last two meetings, but, in addition, the possibility is also envisaged (with, indeed, concrete steps having been taken already) to include a group of papers in a volume published through a known international publishing house.

The current proposal for the themes of the Workshop, a slight variation from the previous proposals – not precluding any other issues, pertaining to modelling and analysis of the transformation processes and phenomena – includes: (i) the continuing crisis and its impact for the transforming economies (and, indeed, the more general transformations, apparently needed), with special emphasis on the role of financial institutions; (ii) the actual status and role of the information society / knowledge economy paradigms under different change circumstances; and (iii) the summary net impact and mechanisms of the greening of economy. To those, we would like to add, given the present global change and turmoil symptoms: (iv) the economic war and its repercussions – the victims and the beneficiaries, and (v) the economics and impacts of migrations: reasons, mechanisms, and consequences.

We certainly look forward to your contributions to and an active participation in the meeting.

3. EURO 2016 Conference in Poznań

Although it was decided to hold the MODEST 2016 Workshop and the BOS 2016 Conference separated from the EURO 2016 meeting in Poznań, we would like to invite all of you to this key event, gathering usually around two thousand participants from around the world. Polish Operational and Systems Research Society shall be also the organiser of this event, acting in concert with EURO, and with the local organisers.

Not only is Poznań an interesting, attractive, vibrant urban centre, with an important academic community, but it also boasts high level skills in organising and running international events. The academic community in Poznań is indeed broad, including a number of universities, some of them of quite significant international renown (e.g. the statistical school, associated with the University of Agriculture). There is, as well a strong representation in the domains of operational research and the methodologies, pertaining to it, special emphasis obviously being placed on computer science and its applications.

We are certain that you shall by no means regret the decision to go to Poznań for EURO 2016. Check the website of the Conference:

4. Proposals and suggestions

As usual, we return to the possible subjects of joint work within the MODEST community. Thus, in the previous Newsletters we forwarded some suggestions concerning the potential fields of collaboration, e.g. within the framework of bilateral or broader, multinational European projects. We come back herewith to these ideas, with additional information and one more domain of potential joint work. Let us emphasise that in all those fields not only definite research work is, of course, being carried out, but, actually, some collaborative work is, as well, underway.

These activities, and the related ideas, concentrate around the following four themes (which, of course, do by no means limit the potential scope of concepts for future collaborative work):

  • modeling for the evaluation of the consequences of and design of changes in the Common Agricultural Policy; there are already a number of models that supposedly do the job, but what virtually all of them lack is the micro- or landscape, or community dimension (or, at a bare minimum – the one of a municipality); on the other hand there is also a gap on the real macro scale meaning aggregate effects for the EU and the world; in conditions of the current crisis the knowledge of potential consequences of various policies and instruments at the scale of the real processes, and not only somewhat abstract aggregates, becomes even more important;

  • assessing and modeling the role of ICT in development (place and role in the feedback loop), especially in terms of development dynamics from various starting points, and the possibility of short-cuts; here, as well, the local and regional dimension is of importance; again, this applies equally to the macro- and the real micro- dimensions, in economic and spatial terms;

  • modeling the consequences of policies related to the “green paths”, and the possibility of making (or leaving open and effectively available) the truly “optimum” choices and avoiding the “green paradoxes”, without bearing too much of economic and social costs that would impair short- and medium-term competitiveness; this involves an intricate interplay of time horizons, investment and risk, mainly associated with energy; the recent events on the world scene, oil prices and global-warming-related undertakings included, show it very clearly that the respective models are indeed necessary, and, at that, a variety of them, that could grasp the different aspects and perspectives on these issues;

  • development of the methodologies related to decision making under uncertainty in situations of emergency, with the use of decision rules, decision trees, fuzzy and intuitionistic logic, and respective linguistic representations; this set of methodological tools might be of high value in devising decision support systems for the high-risk operations with limited information and high uncertainty;

  • the economic war, its instruments, mechanisms, and its consequences – the historical precedents, the impact on the adversaries, the true victims and the actual beneficiaries; this, set against the surprisingly rich background of the current events, starting with winter 2013/2014, seems to be a subject that has three exceptionally significant aspects: (I) the capacity to wage the economic war, along with the expected effects in formal, “official” terms; (II) the role of the economic war in uncovering the veiled bottom line facts of the economic situation and economic policies; and (III) the true victims and the actual beneficiaries of such circumstances.

Should you be interested in collaboration on these themes, or in coining other ones of potential
interest to members of MODEST, please, contact us about it.



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